The reason the Bills will win this year

[Fletch]

Re: The reason the Bills will win this year

The Bills lost 4 games by 7 points or less last year. If the Bills score more points, 6-10 turns into 10-6.

That's irrelevant. Many teams lost 4 games or so by even less than that. It happens every season to most teams. NE lost 4 games by 7 points or less too. Cleveland lost 4 games by 7 points or less too. Tampa lost 4 games by 3 points or less.

What's your point on that, it happens to every team. You cannot just assume that we automatically win those 4 more games every season, otherwise we would have won the 4 games that we lost by 7 points or less in 2012 last season and finished 10-6.

I am thinking between 6-10 TD's by both Watkins & Williams.

OK, so let's assume that one has 10 and the other 6, you can pick which as it doesn't matter. That's 16 passing TDs between the two. Clearly the rest of the WRs and the TEs and RBs would get some too. Let's be conservative and say 10 more since the 9 that I projected above should go up if our QB play is that good.

So you think that Manuel, or Tuel/Lewis/Manuel, are going to throw for 26 TDs this season? Seriously?

To add a perspective to this, Brady in NE last season threw 25 TDs.

I still don't understand what your hope in our QB situation is for this massive leap in play at that spot. Training camp isn't coming close to supporting such a notion and it's only training camp, the defense isn't even playing for keeps yet.

I think that if Manuel can hit 20 TDs then it would be remarkable.

I also think that Williams' TD production is largely going to happen in the red zone where we were ranked 29th last season, so I think that 6 is very very generous for him considering that.

Also, until another RB steps up to become a solid 3rd-down option, something we don't presently have aside from Jackson, I see more issues on offense than problems solved from last season to this one. Jackson's already struggling with minor injuries.

Under the present set of circumstances we're either going to be very predictable (passing) on 3rd downs, or very ineffective since Spiller, Brown, and Dixon all suck on 3rd downs given their histories on 3rd's. Neither Brown nor Dixon are good receivers, period, not just on 3rd downs. Spiller's a fine receiving back, but the team doesn't play him on 3rd-down precisely because it's predictable that they're going to throw when he's in there on 3rd's.

It's fun to talk about Dixon and Brown as if they're going to do something for us, but in doing so it's a good idea to look at their histories in the NFL, and in college even, to see if they're the types of RBs that can do what many are expecting them to do. Don't you think.

I think that this offense is going to struggle on 3rd downs, both offensively and defensively. Offensively we'll be predictable as a passing team on 3rd downs, or like I pointed out, we won't be effective running on 3rd's with any consistency whatsoever. Defensively we don't have any LBs that have proven that they can play well on passing downs, definitely nothing above average, I see our defense getting shredded by pass plays on 3rd downs, not to mention in the passing game altogether.

We play some great passing offenses too this season. We play NE which will be much better than they were last season, we also have to play Denver, SD, Chicago, Detroit, GB, all top-10 passing teams. We couldn't beat top-half passing teams, at all, last season. How are we going to stop them this season with Alonzo out and Byrd gone?

We also play Cleveland and Houston, both top half last season in passing. You can dismiss Cleveland but they beat us last season and Hoyer is looking good according to reports there. You can dismiss Houston too, but we didn't beat one single team, not one, that was ranked better than 18th last season in passing.

If we use last season's defensive MO, then we lose those 9 games. Again, we did not beat one single passing team ranked higher than 18th despite all of the sacks and INTs we achieved. Maybe people had better begin looking at why all those sacks and INTs but no ability to shut down any above average passing team before insisting that our defense isn't going to be a bottom-dwelling defense again this season.

We also face many many more top-10 RBs to compound matters.

[gebobs]

Re: The reason the Bills will win this year

That's irrelevant. Many teams lost 4 games or so by even less than that. It happens every season to most teams. NE lost 4 games by 7 points or less too. Cleveland lost 4 games by 7 points or less too. Tampa lost 4 games by 3 points or less.

Not to mention, three of the Bills six wins were by 1, 2, and 3 points. An errant throw here and missed FG there and the Bills are 3-13.

[swiper]

Re: The reason the Bills will win this year

Not to mention, three of the Bills six wins were by 1, 2, and 3 points. An errant throw here and missed FG there and the Bills are 3-13.

How dare you try and bring down the "Bills are going to the play-offs" crowd with such nonsense.

[/sarcasm off]

[better days]

Re: The reason the Bills will win this year

That's irrelevant. Many teams lost 4 games or so by even less than that. It happens every season to most teams. NE lost 4 games by 7 points or less too. Cleveland lost 4 games by 7 points or less too. Tampa lost 4 games by 3 points or less.

What's your point on that, it happens to every team. You cannot just assume that we automatically win those 4 more games every season, otherwise we would have won the 4 games that we lost by 7 points or less in 2012 last season and finished 10-6.



OK, so let's assume that one has 10 and the other 6, you can pick which as it doesn't matter. That's 16 passing TDs between the two. Clearly the rest of the WRs and the TEs and RBs would get some too. Let's be conservative and say 10 more since the 9 that I projected above should go up if our QB play is that good.

So you think that Manuel, or Tuel/Lewis/Manuel, are going to throw for 26 TDs this season? Seriously?

To add a perspective to this, Brady in NE last season threw 25 TDs.

I still don't understand what your hope in our QB situation is for this massive leap in play at that spot. Training camp isn't coming close to supporting such a notion and it's only training camp, the defense isn't even playing for keeps yet.

I think that if Manuel can hit 20 TDs then it would be remarkable.

I also think that Williams' TD production is largely going to happen in the red zone where we were ranked 29th last season, so I think that 6 is very very generous for him considering that.

Also, until another RB steps up to become a solid 3rd-down option, something we don't presently have aside from Jackson, I see more issues on offense than problems solved from last season to this one. Jackson's already struggling with minor injuries.

Under the present set of circumstances we're either going to be very predictable (passing) on 3rd downs, or very ineffective since Spiller, Brown, and Dixon all suck on 3rd downs given their histories on 3rd's. Neither Brown nor Dixon are good receivers, period, not just on 3rd downs. Spiller's a fine receiving back, but the team doesn't play him on 3rd-down precisely because it's predictable that they're going to throw when he's in there on 3rd's.

It's fun to talk about Dixon and Brown as if they're going to do something for us, but in doing so it's a good idea to look at their histories in the NFL, and in college even, to see if they're the types of RBs that can do what many are expecting them to do. Don't you think.

I think that this offense is going to struggle on 3rd downs, both offensively and defensively. Offensively we'll be predictable as a passing team on 3rd downs, or like I pointed out, we won't be effective running on 3rd's with any consistency whatsoever. Defensively we don't have any LBs that have proven that they can play well on passing downs, definitely nothing above average, I see our defense getting shredded by pass plays on 3rd downs, not to mention in the passing game altogether.

We play some great passing offenses too this season. We play NE which will be much better than they were last season, we also have to play Denver, SD, Chicago, Detroit, GB, all top-10 passing teams. We couldn't beat top-half passing teams, at all, last season. How are we going to stop them this season with Alonzo out and Byrd gone?

We also play Cleveland and Houston, both top half last season in passing. You can dismiss Cleveland but they beat us last season and Hoyer is looking good according to reports there. You can dismiss Houston too, but we didn't beat one single team, not one, that was ranked better than 18th last season in passing.

If we use last season's defensive MO, then we lose those 9 games. Again, we did not beat one single passing team ranked higher than 18th despite all of the sacks and INTs we achieved. Maybe people had better begin looking at why all those sacks and INTs but no ability to shut down any above average passing team before insisting that our defense isn't going to be a bottom-dwelling defense again this season.

We also face many many more top-10 RBs to compound matters.

No, it is not irrelevant that the Bills lost 4 games by 7 points or less.

What is irrelevant is the other teams records. I am talking about the BILLS, NOT any other team.

I pointed out how the Bills could win those 4 games, by scoring more points than they did last year when they were in the bottom of the league in scoring.

The addition of Watkins & Williams are the reason I believe that it is possible that the Bills do score much more than they did last year.

[Mr. Pink]

Re: The reason the Bills will win this year

No, it is not irrelevant that the Bills lost 4 games by 7 points or less.

What is irrelevant is the other teams records. I am talking about the BILLS, NOT any other team.

I pointed out how the Bills could win those 4 games, by scoring more points than they did last year when they were in the bottom of the league in scoring.

The addition of Watkins & Williams are the reason I believe that it is possible that the Bills do score much more than they did last year.

And they've lost Alonso and Byrd while adopting a new defensive scheme which will likely lead them to giving up more points as well.

[better days]

Re: The reason the Bills will win this year

And they've lost Alonso and Byrd while adopting a new defensive scheme which will likely lead them to giving up more points as well.

I doubt the Bills miss Byrd at all.

I will bet the Bills give up less points than last year for a few reasons.

1) They will do a better job stopping the run

2) Improved offensive play will mean the Defense plays with a lead, a huge advantage.

3) Improved offensive play also means the Bills have the ball for a longer period of time than they did last year.

And Schwartz has said the most important thing to him was points allowed. He does not want to give up points & his defense will reflect that.

[stuckincincy]

Re: The reason the Bills will win this year

I doubt the Bills miss Byrd at all.

I will bet the Bills give up less points than last year for a few reasons.

1) They will do a better job stopping the run

2) Improved offensive play will mean the Defense plays with a lead, a huge advantage.

3) Improved offensive play also means the Bills have the ball for a longer period of time than they did last year.

And Schwartz has said the most important thing to him was points allowed. He does not want to give up points & his defense will reflect that.

You can cross out all those positives if they decide to run their idiotic no-huddle, quick-snap PR stunt again.

[better days]

Re: The reason the Bills will win this year

You can cross out all those positives if they decide to run their idiotic no-huddle, quick-snap PR stunt again.

They can run the uptempo offense as long as they are successful running it.

It is important to get first downs in that offense.

The Bucs are going to run an uptempo offense as well.

As do the Patriots* & Eagles.

[stuckincincy]

Re: The reason the Bills will win this year

They can run the uptempo offense as long as they are successful running it.

It is important to get first downs in that offense.

The Bucs are going to run an uptempo offense as well.

As do the Patriots* & Eagles.

Nuts. Their scheme forced a ROOKIE qb into unplanned hot reads out of panic - a hot read is generally when a sudden blitz comes and an experienced qb tosses it quick to a receiver tuned in to respond. He flung it to whoever he saw when pressure came, blitz or not. Which was wise - an incompleted pass beats a sack.

I'm not sold on Manuel being an inaccurate long passer, yet.

[better days]

Re: The reason the Bills will win this year

Nuts. Their scheme forced a ROOKIE qb into unplanned hot reads out of panic - a hot read is generally when a sudden blitz comes and an experienced qb tosses it quick to a receiver tuned in to respond. He flung it to whoever he saw when pressure came, blitz or not. Which was wise - an incompleted pass beats a sack.

I'm not sold on Manuel being an inaccurate long passer, yet.

I don't think anyone is sold on Manuel YET.

The latest reports are he is playing better.

[trapezeus]

Re: The reason the Bills will win this year

you know what is scary to me about this season?

training camps where the defense looks awesome and offense struggles.

it is possible that its sign of a dominant defense, but more than likely its a sign that the offense is really in trouble. Timing is off, talent isn't there. as a result the defense, with little effort on their part is looking good.

the issue with this is that the defense really isn't as good as it seemed and never addressed the issues that would have been obvious if the O could play a little better.

if the story was offense looks good and d struggles, i feel like that's a good sign that the offense is getting it and maybe the d is just struggling to adapt. it could potentially mean the defense is bad, but in the end, the offense will be able to move the ball.

the way it is now, it really seems like they are either going to have to get a lot of it right in preseason games, or this season is scarily going to be the full step back and we won't even get a pick in the first round for all our troubles.

[better days]

Re: The reason the Bills will win this year

you know what is scary to me about this season?

training camps where the defense looks awesome and offense struggles.

it is possible that its sign of a dominant defense, but more than likely its a sign that the offense is really in trouble. Timing is off, talent isn't there. as a result the defense, with little effort on their part is looking good.

the issue with this is that the defense really isn't as good as it seemed and never addressed the issues that would have been obvious if the O could play a little better.

if the story was offense looks good and d struggles, i feel like that's a good sign that the offense is getting it and maybe the d is just struggling to adapt. it could potentially mean the defense is bad, but in the end, the offense will be able to move the ball.

the way it is now, it really seems like they are either going to have to get a lot of it right in preseason games, or this season is scarily going to be the full step back and we won't even get a pick in the first round for all our troubles.

Early in Camp, I would be more concerned if the offense looked better than the Defense.

The Defense is supposed to have the advantage over the offense early in Camp. That goes for all teams.

But reports have been that Watkins has looked phenomenal so far. And reports by the National media that were in Bills camp early were the same.

Watkins is holding his own against Gilmore, a very physical press corner. That is GREAT NEWS.

[Mr. Pink]

Re: The reason the Bills will win this year

I doubt the Bills miss Byrd at all.

I will bet the Bills give up less points than last year for a few reasons.

1) They will do a better job stopping the run

2) Improved offensive play will mean the Defense plays with a lead, a huge advantage.

3) Improved offensive play also means the Bills have the ball for a longer period of time than they did last year.

And Schwartz has said the most important thing to him was points allowed. He does not want to give up points & his defense will reflect that.

On average last year I believe opponents TOP per series/drive was like 20 seconds longer than the Bills, it's negligible. Easy way to fix that to swing it the opposite direction? Scrap the no huddle hurry up crap.

However stopping the run in today's NFL simply does not matter. Running the ball well in today's NFL does not matter. It's a passing league.

Did you know the Bills were 2nd in rushing last year? Running the football does not matter. They were 6th in 2012. Let me repeat that...running the football does not matter.

Improved QB play makes any team look better, EJ has shown absolutely nothing to even hint that's possible.

[better days]

Re: The reason the Bills will win this year

On average last year I believe opponents TOP per series/drive was like 20 seconds longer than the Bills, it's negligible. Easy way to fix that to swing it the opposite direction? Scrap the no huddle hurry up crap.

However stopping the run in today's NFL simply does not matter. Running the ball well in today's NFL does not matter. It's a passing league.

Did you know the Bills were 2nd in rushing last year? Running the football does not matter. They were 6th in 2012. Let me repeat that...running the football does not matter.

Improved QB play makes any team look better, EJ has shown absolutely nothing to even hint that's possible.

Did you know the Bills defense ranked #6 against the pass last year?

Did you know the Bills defense ranked #26 against the run last year?

If it is such a passing league, & running the football does not matter, the Bill should have won more games last year.

And Sammy Watkins & Mike Williams have shown it is possible for them to catch the ball & make plays no matter how poorly the ball was thrown.

[better days]

Re: The reason the Bills will win this year

Let Me repeat that Mr. Pink.

Only 5 teams. Only FIVE teams in the entire NFL defended the pass better than the Bills did last year.

On the other hand, Twenty five teams defended the run better than the Bills last year.