How Good Will The Bills Defense Be This Year?

[BillsImpossible]

Very excited about this year's D.

This could be the best defense the Bills have had in a long time.

Stopping the run was a problem last year, but I don't think it's going to be a problem in 2014.

Did anyone else notice how big the Bills linebackers looked on Sunday?

Brandon Spikes, Preston Brown and Nigel Bradham are some big dudes.

6'2 255 lbs, 6'1 250 lbs and 6'2 241 lbs respectively.

Bill Belichick is pissed!

Looks like the linebackers have some good depth too, even with Kiko out for the season.

Remember how the Bills defense had a tendency to give up big plays on third and long last year?

If they can eliminate those big plays on third down, and stop the run...

Top 10 defense?

[ServoBillieves]

Re: How Good Will The Bills Defense Be This Year?

All depends on health. I think that goes without saying, but this team has(d) it's holes all filled for the year on defense. An unquestionably elite D-line, 2 of your 3 linebackers being top-tier players, Gilmore and McLovin' on the outside, Robey in the slot when necessary, and Williams and Searcy in the back with Meeks/Duke ready to step in if needed. Losing Kiko is huge, but having decent depth behind makes it at least OK for now. One more LB goes down and it's a bit... eh...

I'd say top 10.

[gebobs]

Re: How Good Will The Bills Defense Be This Year?

Middle of the road. 10th to 20th. I'll bet anyone two bits they don't finish higher. 200 bits even.

I'd say top 10.

You're on. What's your mark?

[Fletch]

Re: How Good Will The Bills Defense Be This Year?

Very excited about this year's D.

This could be the best defense the Bills have had in a long time.

Stopping the run was a problem last year, but I don't think it's going to be a problem in 2014.

Did anyone else notice how big the Bills linebackers looked on Sunday?

Brandon Spikes, Preston Brown and Nigel Bradham are some big dudes.

6'2 255 lbs, 6'1 250 lbs and 6'2 241 lbs respectively.

Bill Belichick is pissed!

Looks like the linebackers have some good depth too, even with Kiko out for the season.

Remember how the Bills defense had a tendency to give up big plays on third and long last year?

If they can eliminate those big plays on third down, and stop the run...

Top 10 defense?

I noticed Preston Brown getting run over on just about every play. Didn't pay a whole lot more specific attention to the LBs.

I can't disagree more. Let's bookmark this thread and come back to it in the fall.

First of all we play better passing offenses than we did last season, so I'll factor that in. Much and many better RBs too. I expect both NE and the Jets' offenses to be better too.

Last season we were ranked 20th in PA, I expect that to get worse.

Last season we were ranked 28th in rushing yards allowed, I expect that to stay about the same.

Last season we were ranked 10th in passing yards allowed, I expect that to get significantly worse.

Last season we were ranked 3rd in passer rating against us, I expect that to get significantly worse.

Last season we were ranked 7th in YPA allowed, I expect that to get significantly worse.

Last season we were ranked 1st in completion % allowed, I expect that to get significantly worse.

Last season we were ranked 2nd in sacks and INTs, I expect both of those to get significantly worse.

Last season we were ranked 10th in total yards allowed, I expect that to get significantly worse.

Our schedule last season was relatively weak in terms of the offenses that we played. Everyone had better factor that in when making predictions on this D. We'll be close to what the D was in 2012 this season than what it was last season.

The offense should improve slightly, should, but it won't be enough to offset the regression in the D.

I don't know why the high expectations, our back-7 is ridiculously weak in the passing department. No LBs capable of providing above average play against the pass, unproven play at one safety spot, I think we'll see a statistical regression in Aaron Williams that everyone will insist is because he's playing worse but will really be attributable to circumstances. McKelvin's not good as a CB and Gilmore while good, isn't great, and didn't improve as he should have last season.

So I'll disagree completely with your statement that this could be the best defense that we've had in a long time. I think that it won't be much better than our 2012 defense which ranked 22nd in yards and 26th in PA. People will attribute it to Schwartz, but the reality is that we just had an easy schedule of offensive teams last season.

Non-divisional scoring offenses faced last season: 6T, 6T, 10, 16, 18, 20, 25, 27, 30, 32 (Avg. 19th)

Last season's Non-divisional scoring offenses faced this season: 1, 2, 6, 8, 12, 13, 14, 24, 27, 31 (Avg. 14th)

New England's offense should be much better and so should the Jets'.

[Topas]

Re: How Good Will The Bills Defense Be This Year?

I'd say 7-12th in DVOA of football outsiders. NFL rankings are useless. A 11 yard gain on 3rd and 12 is good for the defense. And DVOA accounts for that. NFL rankings say the defense gave up 11 yards.

> Bill Belichick is pissed!
I dont think so. After 2 series that is laughable. I think we have to temper our love for the D and also our hate for EJ. Its only two series. Lets see. But at least the D lookos encouraging, I agree on that.


By the way. Buf defense was fourth in DVOA last year. You can actually debate that ranking considering the huge chunk of running yards. But I think some of these numbers are due to the fact, that the offense could not stay on the field and the opposing O got lots of drives. I really think we will miss Pettine. Hopefully I am wrong.

[Fletch]

Re: How Good Will The Bills Defense Be This Year?

I think we have to temper our love for the D and also our hate for EJ. Its only two series.

EJ's been the same for five seasons. The chances of him changing this season, not to mention that there's not even a shred of evidence suggesting that he will yet this preseason/camp, aren't good.

I really think we will miss Pettine. Hopefully I am wrong.

Pettine was overrated here because he had the benefit of an easy slate of offensive teams. The Pats last season were the weakest they've been under Brady since over a decade ago when Brady was first starting out. He's going to do a lot more with those same receivers this season.

[Topas]

Re: How Good Will The Bills Defense Be This Year?

...
Pettine was overrated here because he had the benefit of an easy slate of offensive teams. The Pats last season were the weakest they've been under Brady since over a decade ago when Brady was first starting out. He's going to do a lot more with those same receivers this season.

I disagree. Let's see. As said I believe in DVOA, the ranking by footballoutsiders. It is not perfect, but way better what the NFL provides us with. It adjusts (among others) for strength of schedule. And it has the Bills D jumping from 27th in 2012 to 4th in 2013. So let's see if Pettine was overrated. I am happy to discuss this again at the end of the season. As said, I hope I am wrong.

[Fletch]

Re: How Good Will The Bills Defense Be This Year?

We all want a winner.

Keep in mind too that DVOA, or any statistics, are all precipitated by the games played. If those games are easier than average it will reflect, even in DVOA.

For example, if a team played only the 13 worst teams in the league in a given season, DVOA's would be good, but it would be a reflection of an easy schedule. That's where DVOA data and other PFF and FO data falls short.

[Topas]

Re: How Good Will The Bills Defense Be This Year?

...
Keep in mind too that DVOA, or any statistics, are all precipitated by the games played. If those games are easier than average it will reflect, even in DVOA.
...

Actually no. DVOA adjusts for strength of schedule. So if they play a very bad O they actually get penalized for their performance. If they play a very good O they get a boost in their rating. And it even differs between good Run-O and good pass-O. On a per play basis.
So actually that is one of the big benefits of DVOA.

[better days]

Re: How Good Will The Bills Defense Be This Year?

I noticed Preston Brown getting run over on just about every play. Didn't pay a whole lot more specific attention to the LBs.

I can't disagree more. Let's bookmark this thread and come back to it in the fall.

First of all we play better passing offenses than we did last season, so I'll factor that in. Much and many better RBs too. I expect both NE and the Jets' offenses to be better too.

Last season we were ranked 20th in PA, I expect that to get worse.

Last season we were ranked 28th in rushing yards allowed, I expect that to stay about the same.

Last season we were ranked 10th in passing yards allowed, I expect that to get significantly worse.

Last season we were ranked 3rd in passer rating against us, I expect that to get significantly worse.

Last season we were ranked 7th in YPA allowed, I expect that to get significantly worse.

Last season we were ranked 1st in completion % allowed, I expect that to get significantly worse.

Last season we were ranked 2nd in sacks and INTs, I expect both of those to get significantly worse.

Last season we were ranked 10th in total yards allowed, I expect that to get significantly worse.

Our schedule last season was relatively weak in terms of the offenses that we played. Everyone had better factor that in when making predictions on this D. We'll be close to what the D was in 2012 this season than what it was last season.

The offense should improve slightly, should, but it won't be enough to offset the regression in the D.

I don't know why the high expectations, our back-7 is ridiculously weak in the passing department. No LBs capable of providing above average play against the pass, unproven play at one safety spot, I think we'll see a statistical regression in Aaron Williams that everyone will insist is because he's playing worse but will really be attributable to circumstances. McKelvin's not good as a CB and Gilmore while good, isn't great, and didn't improve as he should have last season.

So I'll disagree completely with your statement that this could be the best defense that we've had in a long time. I think that it won't be much better than our 2012 defense which ranked 22nd in yards and 26th in PA. People will attribute it to Schwartz, but the reality is that we just had an easy schedule of offensive teams last season.

Non-divisional scoring offenses faced last season: 6T, 6T, 10, 16, 18, 20, 25, 27, 30, 32 (Avg. 19th)

Last season's Non-divisional scoring offenses faced this season: 1, 2, 6, 8, 12, 13, 14, 24, 27, 31 (Avg. 14th)

New England's offense should be much better and so should the Jets'.

Yes, let's bookmark this thread. I can't wait to throw it back in your face.

I would agree, some stats such as sacks will be down, but I expect the run defense to be MUCH IMPROVED.

I expect the defense to not spend as much time on the field because of good offensive play & also the ability of the defense to stop other teams from controlling the ball.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Re: How Good Will The Bills Defense Be This Year?

I think this team will be better at run defense and significantly worse on pass defense. Maybe if the DLine plays like men possessed then we can compensate for the lack of Byrd and Alonso, but I doubt it.

Well, that, and we play Manning, Brady, and Rodgers in the span of a month. If you still have Buffalo's D on your fantasy team at Thanksgiving, you're boned.

[better days]

Re: How Good Will The Bills Defense Be This Year?

I think this team will be better at run defense and significantly worse on pass defense. Maybe if the DLine plays like men possessed then we can compensate for the lack of Byrd and Alonso, but I doubt it.

Well, that, and we play Manning, Brady, and Rodgers in the span of a month. If you still have Buffalo's D on your fantasy team at Thanksgiving, you're boned.

Well, that assumes Manning, Brady & Rodgers are all still healthy at that point.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Re: How Good Will The Bills Defense Be This Year?

Well, that assumes Manning, Brady & Rodgers are all still healthy at that point.

Well it also assumes Kyle, Mario, Spikes, etc are healthy too. Basically everybody is hanging their higher expectations for this season on Brandon Spikes, if he goes down then our D is screwed.

[better days]

Re: How Good Will The Bills Defense Be This Year?

Well it also assumes Kyle, Mario, Spikes, etc are healthy too. Basically everybody is hanging their higher expectations for this season on Brandon Spikes, if he goes down then our D is screwed.

Agreed, but even if the Bills defense loses one of those players, the Bills defense will be better than the offense of any of those teams if the QB gets injured.

[Fletch]

Re: How Good Will The Bills Defense Be This Year?

Actually no. DVOA adjusts for strength of schedule. So if they play a very bad O they actually get penalized for their performance. If they play a very good O they get a boost in their rating. And it even differs between good Run-O and good pass-O. On a per play basis.
So actually that is one of the big benefits of DVOA.

That's not really correct. What it does is performs a sort of or variation of a weighted average, for lack of a mores specific statistical term that's appropos here, based on circumstances. Very superfically, such as running play vs. pass play. More detailed of course, but that kind of circumstantial thing. At least that's my understanding. Also, keep in mind that this is FO's MO, that does not make that method indisputable. It's kind of like QB rating.

Either way, and not to get hung up on the nuances of DVOAs, I'll defer to you and insist that even using DVOAs the defense will be worse as I described it.

We'll see. I just don't see us playing equally, much less better, against teams the likes of which we played poorly last season. We just play more of them now.

Remember, it's a passing league and we were just stripped of our two biggest players against the pass in the back-7, Alonso by injury and Byrd by free agency.