Bills vs Dolphins: pregame analysis
Well the Bills, as a team, threw up a stinker of a game last week, luckily for them it was against the expansion Houston Texans. This week they’re playing a much tougher opponent… the Miami Dolphins. The battered Dolphins will be looking to obtain a stranglehold on the AFC East, and with a win they will do just that. This game promises to define the season for the Bills, as they will travel to a difficult and loud venue to take on a very tough but very injured division opponent. With a win the Bills will find themselves in the hunt for the division title, or at least a wildcard spot. With a loss, they will find themselves in a deep hole for the rest of the season, with two division losses (in 2 games) and effectively 4games back of first place. This weekly review will follow the structure of the previous reviews, with a look at the match-ups, and a prediction on the score. For the gamblers, you have my apologies as I’m now on a two game slump, as the Bills have failed to cover the last two games. That brings my overall record against the point spread to 3-3, while my over-under record remains a stellar 6-0. Overall, I’m two Chad Morton returns away from a perfect record picking the winner; instead thanks to our special teams’ gifts I hold a 5-1 record picking the winner.
When the Bills have the ball and are…
Running: Well, last week was sort of a watershed game for the Bills O, as their ‘road-dormant’ running game finally found its legs in Houston. The Bills huge O-line (without Big Mike for most of the game) pounded the smaller Texans front seven all game long to the tune of 170 yards rushing. Against the Dolphins (in Miami) and with or (more likely) without M.Williams the Bills will have difficulty repeating their success against a very large, strong, fast and talented Dolphins front seven. The Miami front seven has held much stronger running attacks (than the Bills) in check this season, and if the Bills can’t find any success with the run it might make this game that much tougher for the O. The key to the Bills running successfully will rely on two things. The first being Teague and Sullivan being able to handle Tim Bowens, the mammoth Miami DLman, as they’ve had some difficulty handling the bigger and more powerful DTs of the league. The second thing is the Bills will need is a healthy M.Williams back. Since neither seems very likely do not expect Henry and the O to have the success they had last week in Texas, as the Miami D is too strong up front to easily run against. Watch for Henry and the ground game to struggle again on the road.
Passing: Thus far no-one has slowed down the Bills passing game, as Drew and company have chewed up secondary after secondary seemingly at will thus far. The Miami D has been good but nothing special against the pass so far this year. The Miami D doesn’t blitz often, and will try to stay in their base 4-3 D as long as possible… however they wouldn’t be shy about changing up and going with a nickel if they have problems with the Bills passing attack. The Miami safeties are the biggest problem in their secondary this year, as they are slow and often get beat in coverage. This weeks big difference maker will be Moulds, who always seems to save his best games for the Dolphins. Neither Surtain nor Madison has shown any ability to contain him, and with Bledsoe tossing the ball to him expect him to have a monster game. If Jennings can limit Taylor’s impact (he has 5.5 sacks thus far) expect the passing circus to continue for another week.
When the Dolphins have the ball and are…
Running: For the second time in two weeks we will be playing a team which has run the ball more than they’ve passed. Unfortunately for us, it will be the best running attack in football we’re seeing this week, not the anemic Texans. The Texans ran to the tune of 140+ yards by spreading the field with a 3WR set and running against our nickel D, just like every single team we’ve played since week one. Teams will continue to do this to us until our D can show it can stop someone. This week the Miami Dolphins would be stupid not to follow the past examples and spread the field. Unfortunately for them their passing threat is much diminished this week as both their top two WRs and their starting QB are likely out. Without the credible threat of a passing attack, the Bills might not fall back into their nickel against the spread. The Miami O should still find very good success on the ground as the Bills D front has been too undisciplined in their gap assignments to consistently stop the run. Not to mention R.Williams is an absolute workhorse. The best the Bills can hope for is to contain Ricky by preventing him from breaking any big runs.
Passing: This week the Dolphins will likely play without their starting QB (J.Fiedler) and both of their top two Wide Receivers (Gadsdon & Chambers). In their place the ‘Fins will start Lucas, McKnight, and Ward. Ray Lucas will present an interesting challenge to the Bills D as he is a bit of a scrambler; luckily, while he does have a strong arm his is fairly inconsistent and the Bills might just get their first pick against him as he is liable to throw ill-advised balls. The Miami passing game is designed to feed off the play-action pass, and short third down yardage (thanks to their running game), so while it is the model of efficiency it wouldn’t break your back (that’s Ricky’s job).
Conclusion
If ever the Bills are going to beat the Dolphins in Miami, this should be the week. The Dolphins were physically beaten by the Broncos, and have numerous injuries on their O. The Bills D will have a shot at redemption this week in Miami as the maimed Dolphin O will struggle just to find a rhythm against the Bills. Due to those injuries expect to see Ricky get as many touches as possible, as the Dolphins game plan will be to keep the Bills O off the field as long as possible, and to limit the errors by the new cast and crew. It will be imperative for the Bills O to jump out to a quick lead this weekend, because if this is a close game going into the 4th and with the heat and crowd, the Bills D will be unable to stop anything. I’m not sure how this one will turn out, as Miami is a tough place to play, and the injuries the Miami team has suffered has complicated matters... while just two days ago I would have said the Dolphins would win, now I’ll go with the Bills 31-20, as Miami is too beat up to overcome Bledsoe and the Bills.
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Ingtar..I have 300 zone bucks on the line, so I am really hoping you're right (which you usually are). I especially agree on your Bills passing: analysis!
It should be a fantastic game ...... 
Originally Posted by notacon
