Count on a loss against the Jets, and a 7-9 season.

[Dr. Lecter]

Re: Count on a loss against the Jets, and a 7-9 season.

Aaron Rodgers vs Buffalo Bills pass defense.

Have you seen what he's been doing this year? He'll have 200 yards and 3 TDs at half.

The end.

Green Bay is 5-2 and lost to Detroit.
they are not unbeatable.


They also are 20th in the NFL in passing offense.

The Bills are 19th.

Maybe they are not as dominant as you think they are
The end

[YardRat]

Re: Count on a loss against the Jets, and a 7-9 season.

The Jets play decent against the Pats, which they always seem to do, and all of a sudden everyone is blowing their load over them.

I'm taking Buffalo this week especially +3 are you kidding me. They aren't great but they are certainly a better team. The only place the Jets are better basically is coaching.

They also play decent against us. I'm not liking going into their house when they've lost 6 in a row, the current W-L records be damned.

[Mr. Pink]

Re: Count on a loss against the Jets, and a 7-9 season.

Green Bay is 5-2 and lost to Detroit.
they are not unbeatable.


They also are 20th in the NFL in passing offense.

The Bills are 19th.

Maybe they are not as dominant as you think they are
The end

2 of the past 3 games Green Bay has basically been done passing the football at halftime.

Rodgers has 1700 yards 18 TDs and 1 INT on the year.

He will shred this secondary.

Detroit is also 5-2 in case you were unaware.

[BuffaloRedleg]

Re: Count on a loss against the Jets, and a 7-9 season.

They also play decent against us. I'm not liking going into their house when they've lost 6 in a row, the current W-L records be damned.

Oh no doubt. Like I said, they are better than us at coaching which tends to equalize things. They are a really bad team though, so I mean whatever we'll see.

I just get annoyed with all of this pseudo-wisdom about "we can't play like x and expect to y against z". It's just plain false.

Fans are completely irrational, even the negative "truth telling" ones. I guarantee Jets fans think they are going to lose this week, for example. I was listening to Bill Burr's podcast after the Pats game against us and he was pissed about how bad the Patriots looked and that they didn't deserve to win. That's just the way it is, and we sure as hell have a lot of that around here.

[Mace]

Re: Count on a loss against the Jets, and a 7-9 season.

So outside of us Bills fan, the country views us no better than a 1-7 team. Worse than actually. lol.

The Jets are not really so terrible, Geno Smith amazed me last week with his game. Ryan's 4-6 hybrid, the Bills o-line is lost, I have a feeling they do the standard run-a-lot and short pass us mercilessly in their house, blitz madly, they have a vengeance game against life coming and we are not so inevitable atm. They are going to pick on McKelvin, your guess is as good as mine if he will be good McKelvin or bad McKelvin, and I think they thump us in their house because Marrone has no motivational handle on his team.

[Mace]

Re: Count on a loss against the Jets, and a 7-9 season.

That's just the way it is, and we sure as hell have a lot of that around here.

The thing is though, they never break us of the habit, bud. They have a tendency to dork around when you expect effort. It can't be false until they make it so, and by now I think we all want them to desperately.

[Forward_Lateral]

Re: Count on a loss against the Jets, and a 7-9 season.

Pressure Geno relentlessly, and it won't even be close.

[coastal]

Re: Count on a loss against the Jets, and a 7-9 season.

8-8

at least we won't hand over a top 5 pick

[Dr. Lecter]

Re: Count on a loss against the Jets, and a 7-9 season.

2 of the past 3 games Green Bay has basically been done passing the football at halftime.

Rodgers has 1700 yards 18 TDs and 1 INT on the year.

He will shred this secondary.

Detroit is also 5-2 in case you were unaware.

I'm perfectly aware Detriot is 5-2

Who did one of those 2 come against? (in case you were unaware)

[better days]

Re: Count on a loss against the Jets, and a 7-9 season.

I'm perfectly aware Detriot is 5-2

Who did one of those 2 come against? (in case you were unaware)

Having beaten the Bears in Chicago, the Lions in Detroit & DOMINATING the Dolphins, the Bills appear capable of beating any team any given Sunday as long as they play mistake free football.

[Fletch]

Re: Count on a loss against the Jets, and a 7-9 season.

I think we lose to the Raiders and beat the Pack.

Hell, nobody gave us a snowballs chance against Baltimore last year.

Every season, like most other teams, aka we're not special, we win one that we shouldn't have, sometimes two, but rarely more. Tampa beat Pittsburgh, St. Louis beat Seattle. This year we beat Chicago for one. I can't count Detroit because when we played them they had no capable offensive players on the field besides Tate so it was nothing at all like Detroit at full strength, otherwise they would count. That Detroit team when we played them is a 4-12 team on the season without Bell, Bush, and megatron. Not like they're a 12-4 team with them either.

I can maybe see one more such win and maybe GB is it. But at the same time to sit here and say that we will beat all the teams that appear to be about equal or worse than us, Raiders, Miami, Jets, Cleveland is also not smart. We will lose some of those as well.

Also, everyone crows about losing so many games by 3 points or less, well this season we're on the top end of that so far with three of four wins by 3 or less. I doubt that that continues, if anything we're in for a loss or two or three by 3 or less. This is just how things play out for most teams.

I don't see how we beat teams like @ Denver, @ NE, GB (I see Rodgers lighting up our secondary), KC.

I can see us splitting with the Jets but not taking two, perhaps even losing two. If Harvin does anything for them I definitely see that happening. They're a better team right now with a significantly better coach.

Miami's playing more consistently as is Cleveland. Oakland sucks but we know that game is in Oakland where we're jinxed. I still have to think that we finally break that jinx.

But going 3-6 vs. that schedule seems likely to me. 4-5 I have a lot of difficulty envisioning. We're just not that good. If anything I see 2-7 there if not 3-6. But for every win over a team like GB I suspect at least one loss to Miami, Jets, Cleveland, or Oakland.

If Bryce Brown isn't what everyone here has been crowing about we're screwed. We'll have no running game whatsoever. Orton is not the kind of QB that's going to win us those games like that.

But here's the thing, we can't score. Even with Orton in there we're averaging 18.7 ppg. To give us an idea of how bad that is, if it continues it would end up ranking 6th from worst ahead of only Tennessee, Jets, Minnesota, Oakland, and Jax. And the Jets seem to be improving where as we seem to be regressing.

Regression, that's how it works in Buffalo. Other teams with good coaching tweak things and improve, playoff caliber teams that is. But here in Buffalo it seems like an annual exercise to regress once our changes have become known to opponents. Obviously Orton's not drawing the respect of opposing DCs. Now Spiller and Jackson are out, although not as a Jackson injury should come as a surprise to anyone given that he's 33 and the oldest RB in the league. I harped on that all preseason. Team should have made better alternate plans instead of just running down the hallways at OBD talking about how "low mileage" Jackson is.

Spiller sucks, BUT, we've all been assured right here that Bryce Brown is the next Jackson reincarnate. I sure as hell hope so although I don't see it. Again, if not, we're screwed.

Same with our run D although no one wants to hear it. Stopping Lamar Miller and Damien Williams is not a feat. Neither is stopping George Winn or Donald Brown. Meanwhile RBs like Forte run just fine against us at 4.8 ypc and we just got lit up by an unknown named McKinnon, but that doesn't seem to alter anyone's opinion that our rushing D is among the best ever. I see that stat dropping like a brick here soon.

The game winning drive by Orton on Sunday was encouraging, but like when Bledsoe was here, what business did we even have against a team like Minnesota putting up only 10 points through 59 minutes thereby causing the need for a comeback drive like that? One misstep and we lose that game. The point is that if we were that good then why couldn't we put the game away by the half or at least by the end of the 3rd quarter? Maybe that's one of our "fortunate wins" despite the fact that it's against a poor team.

The bottom line right now is that we're not playing the kind of football that's going to win us many games, on either side. We stopped Bridgewater and had bookoo sacks. HURRAY! Big deal. Meanwhile everyone seems to overlook the fact that the Vikes "powered by" McKinnon's rushing managed 5.4 ypc and 158 yards against us, which is horrible from a defensive perspective. I mean seriously, is that insignificant?

Offensively we couldn't put up more than 17 points and took every second of the game, literally, to do it.

We don't play a QB that's worse than Bridgewater the rest of the season, we don't face a RB that's worse than McKinnon either, and we don't face too many defenses if any that are much worse than Minnesota's.

I have no idea how that translates to wins. We're going to have to start scoring more, and with FredEx and Spiller out. I think that Spiller being out may be a plus as we quit trying to force a big run while having 30 heinous runs while trying to generate that good one. Losing Fred will hurt but the clock was winding down on him anyway and we should have made post-Jackson plans, ... but didn't in Whaley's wisdom.

We'll see. I'm not expecting it but it wouldn't surprise me to see us go 1-8.

[Dr. Lecter]

Re: Count on a loss against the Jets, and a 7-9 season.

Having beaten the Bears in Chicago, the Lions in Detroit & DOMINATING the Dolphins, the Bills appear capable of beating any team any given Sunday as long as they play mistake free football.

Well, they aren't beating Denver in Denver.

I am pretty sure on that one

[Fletch]

Re: Count on a loss against the Jets, and a 7-9 season.

I don't think it is quite that easy.

The Seahawks should have dominated the Rams yesterday. The Patriots should have dominated Miami earlier this year. The Browns should have stomped Jacksonville yesterday.

The league is pretty damn close. Really, the only sure thing game I see on the rest of the schedule is Denver. (and the Raiders are probably close to one as well)

Other than that? All games can reasonably go either way

If we don't find a way to start scoring more than 17 - 20 points we're not going to win too many more games. That's going to be difficult without a good RB. We'll see how good BB is, but it'll be amazing if he can fill starting shoes on this offense. He struggled in Philly. Sure, you can cite three games and ignore the other 40, but that's not wise. Like Spiller he's got a few good runs making him look good but as a steady consistent option it's simply not there.

He's fresh, that's the good thing. That'll last two games though.

On the other side, the defense is going to have to tighten up against good RBs too. The Jets rushing game is better than anything we've faced this season except for maybe Chicago where Forte logged 4.8 ypc against us. If the Jets do that then the game won't be close.

[Fletch]

Re: Count on a loss against the Jets, and a 7-9 season.

I don't know how Vegas or betting works, but are they basically saying the 1-7 Jets are better than us?

Vegas works on how people wager. Their goal is 50% of people voting either side. That way they win with the vig.

The lines adjust to accommodate that. For example, if the Jets open at -4 and 70% of the money takes the Jets, then the points go up to persuade betting on the Bills. It keeps adjusting looking for that perfect balance.

If smaller houses are overwhelmed with bets one way, they'll often go to the bigger ones to put money down on the opposite to avoid the potential of that big payout.

It has absolutely nothing to do with football analysis. That's why say when the Pats play San Fran, and the national line is Pats -3, if you bet local in San Fran you may have to take SF even, or contrarily if you wager in the New England states you may have to lay 5 or 6, because they know that their betting base is laden with homers that don't bet reality, they bet their desires. That's why being a book makes money, people bet their hearts, not their brains.

[Fletch]

Re: Count on a loss against the Jets, and a 7-9 season.

The Jets play decent against the Pats, which they always seem to do, and all of a sudden everyone is blowing their load over them.

I'm taking Buffalo this week especially +3 are you kidding me. They aren't great but they are certainly a better team. The only place the Jets are better basically is coaching.

We haven't contained any good RB this season. Our "#1 Run D" has been built on smoke-n-mirrors of having played Donald Brown, George Winn, Lamar Miller, and injured Foster who came out, and sub-par Ridley and Vereen. Forte ran well against us and we just let McKinnon and the Vikes have a heyday.

Last season the Jets averaged the same 158 rushing yards that McKinnon just put up against our "#1 rushing D." Which is now 5th by the way. What is the reason why that won't happen again? If it does, will we win? Just asking the tough questions.

I can see us pressuring Geno like we did Bridgewater, but Bridgewater had his best day as a pro against us. It wasn't good, just sayin', he's sucked worse before playing us.

This is anything but a gimme game. The Jets should be favored.