So where do we stand after today's bloodletting?

[notacon]

Bart Starr, 27, year 6.
Len Dawson, 27, year 6.
Johnny Unitas, 25, year 3.
Roger Staubach was 29, but only year 3 in the league.
Bob Griese was 28, but year 6 in the league.
Ken Stabler was 31, but year 6 in the league.
Terry Bradshaw, 26, year 5.
Jim Plunkett was 33 and in year 9.
Joe Montana, 25, year 3.
Phil Simms was 31, and year 7.
Doug Williams was 32, and year 7.
Jeff Hostetler was 29, but year 5.
Mark Rypien was 29, but year 4.
Steve Young was 33, year 10.
Troy Aikman was 27, year 4.
John Elway was 37, year 15. **
Kurt Warner was 28, but year 2.
Trent Dilfer was 28, year 7.
Brad Johnson was 34, year 8.
Peyton Manning was 30, year 9.
Drew Brees was 31, year 9.
Eli Manning was 26, year 4.
Joe Flacco was 28, but year 5.
Tom Brady was 24, year 2.
Nick Foles was 29, but year 6.
Matt Stafford was 34, year 13.
Patrick Mahomes, 24, year 3.

So of the 27 quarterbacks listed, 17 (63%) had already won a league championship/Super Bowl before 28 years old or/and within their first 6 years in the league. Something Josh didn't do, obviously.

Of the remaining 10, seven (70%) won their title with a team other than the one that originally drafted them. I guess if you're rooting for Josh to win his first trophy with a different team he can still be on track.

Of the remaining three, Elway won two conference championships and played for a Lombardi in his first 6 years, something Josh didn't do, obviously.

That leaves Phil Simms and Peyton Manning as the only two quarterbacks in Super Bowl history that have accomplished what Josh needs to if we want him to win a Super Bowl for Buffalo.

Not impossible, but extremely rare.

Nice try in denying the undeniable.

It is irrelevant if ANY QB "had already won a league championship/Super Bowl before 28 years old or/and within their first 6 years in the league" in respect to the subject at and and the totally absurd premise Opi put forward that the Bills have "wasted Josh's prime".

The FACT is that an overwhelming percentage of Super Bowl winning QB's (not to mention all those that got to the SB but lost) were the same age as Josh or older...in close to half of them over 30 years old.

Winning a "league championship/Super Bowl before 28 years old or/and within their first 6 years in the league" does not make it more likely that a QB will do it again.

But that's not the point. The idea that Josh is "past his prime" is silly beyond measure and profoundly ignorantly DUMB!!

[notacon]

Back to the subject at hand, and as Opi is whining about it not being about him (of course it is...but I digress) and that he "started this thread ABOUT THE STATE OF THE TEAM"

The lame idea that Opi is trying to foist on us is that the Bills have gotten WAAAAAAAY worse and our biggest competitors (in the AFC, that's all that matters to get to the SB) with the unmistakable suggestion have gotten WAAAAAAAY better.

I'm suspect that Opi saw this because he is one of the few that subscribe to the best sports site, The Athletic, but certainly will avoid bringing it up because it makes his premise look as foolish as it is.

Austin Mock presented an UNBIASED assessment of how much each team has improved or gotten worse after the start of free agency (his model is current up until March 20, 2024) by assigning an (again) unbiased numerical value to each team's gain and loss of players.....


NFL projection model: Falcons, Bears winning the offseason; Cowboys, Chiefs slipping

He describes the methodology as…

There’s still plenty of time for teams to reinforce their rosters ahead of — and after — April’s NFL Draft, but with a majority of the big moves likely in the books, it got us wondering: Who’s had the best offseason so far? And who’s had the worst?

To help answer those questions, we turn to my NFL Projection Model. The primary purpose of this model is to project the outcomes of games, but the foundation of the model is built on evaluating players. Using different advanced metrics from TruMedia, Pro Football Focus and other sources, I can assign a value to every player in the NFL. How can this value be interpreted? Think of it as how much a player would affect the point spread of the expected winning percentage of a single game.

After assigning a value to every player, I went through every team transaction this offseason and calculated the value added or lost (up through March 20). Since I’m only looking at how this affects each team for the 2024 NFL season, this does not factor in length of contract or money spent on contracts. It’s also important to note that this process only assesses players who are changing teams. Players who have re-signed with their team aren’t included because that player’s value was already included in his team’s projection.

The table below shows how many points a team added or lost in the offseason. The best way to think about the values is like a team’s point differential. For example, the Chicago Bears had a minus-19 point differential last season. So far this offseason, they’ve added 26 points of value throughout a season, which would have them projected for a plus-7 point differential.

Here is his data...I highlighted the minus in red, and bolded the four best teams in the AFC for ease of reading for those that are too lazy to read the whole post....

ATL - 52.4
CHI - 26.2
PIT - 20.5
DET - 13.8
TEN - 9.5
CLE - 4.8
CAR - 4.2
TB - 3.8
MIA - 3.2
HOU - 2.7
JAX - 2.7
IND - 1.8
GB - 1
SEA - .9
BAL - .5
SF - -.8
LV - -.8
BUF - -1.1
NO - -2.4
NYJ - -2.6
LAR - -3.4
NE - -5.4
CIN - -5.7
NYG - -7.6
ARI - -9.7
WAS - -10.6
PHI - -11.1
LAC - -11.3
DAL - -12.8
KC - -15.8
DEN - -26.6
MIN - -41.7


Of course, changes in QB's have the biggest effect. Plus this is only a metric of the VALUE of change in players and not the relative quality of each team before those changes.

The most critical competitors the Bills (KC, Baltimore & Cincy) Buffalo is doing quite well in comparison, and overall, the quality of the Bills players they lost vs gained is pretty much close to a wash.

Baltimore and the Bills are pretty close in only a very slight reduction in quality of players.....BAL is minus .5 and Buffalo minus 1.1 points...both teams in the middle of all 32 teams (14 of which got a positive points change)

Cincy and KC, on the other hand, had significant downgrades of player quality changes especially when compared to the Bills.....Cincy is minus 5.7 and KC a whopping minus 15.6....third worst of all 32 teams.

In other words, Opi's hand wringing of THE SKY IS FALLING is mostly bullcrap, and shows his severe ANTI-BILLS bias that is undeniable and insufferable.

[Goobylal]

Yes, I started this thread ABOUT THE STATE OF THE TEAM, not about myself.

You make it about you when you throw out these "so-and-so got better while the Bills got worse" definitive statements. And you do it every year, get burned and still keep doing it.

and that would be a stupid thing to do, its clear that the defense isn't good enough with them so why go back to something that didn't work, use younger and players with upside...

Not necessarily. Tre missed all but the first 4 games and Hyde was a decent player for the Bills. The problem against the Chefs was missing (in addition to Milano who was lost early in the season) Bernard, Benford, Spector and Rapp.

[YardRat]

Nice try in denying the undeniable.

It is irrelevant if ANY QB "had already won a league championship/Super Bowl before 28 years old or/and within their first 6 years in the league" in respect to the subject at and and the totally absurd premise Opi put forward that the Bills have "wasted Josh's prime".

The FACT is that an overwhelming percentage of Super Bowl winning QB's (not to mention all those that got to the SB but lost) were the same age as Josh or older...in close to half of them over 30 years old.

Winning a "league championship/Super Bowl before 28 years old or/and within their first 6 years in the league" does not make it more likely that a QB will do it again.

But that's not the point. The idea that Josh is "past his prime" is silly beyond measure and profoundly ignorantly DUMB!!

The facts I presented are undeniable.

If it's irrelevant that Josh is trying to accomplish something that only two quarterbacks have done in the entire history of the Super Bowl, then it's even more irrelevant what QB's have won championships at 28 years old or later.

But I agree, Josh isn't past his prime. Although at this point it appears we have seen his ceiling in 2020.

[Goobylal]

The facts I presented are undeniable.

If it's irrelevant that Josh is trying to accomplish something that only two quarterbacks have done in the entire history of the Super Bowl, then it's even more irrelevant what QB's have won championships at 28 years old or later.

But I agree, Josh isn't past his prime. Although at this point it appears we have seen his ceiling in 2020.

Please, we haven't seen his ceiling yet. And his prior ceiling would have been 2021. His performance towards the end of the season and playoffs was amazing.

[YardRat]

Please, we haven't seen his ceiling yet. And his prior ceiling would have been 2021. His performance towards the end of the season and playoffs was amazing.

If he was as good this year as he was in '20, he would have walked off the field against KC with the lead again instead of throwing the ball to the wrong guy at the wrong time.

[Mad Max]

Please, we haven't seen his ceiling yet. And his prior ceiling would have been 2021. His performance towards the end of the season and playoffs was amazing.

I agree that his ceiling hasn’t been reached. His remaining growth is between his ears. There’s no guarantee that that growth will ever happen unfortunately…but if it does and it finally clicks for him we’ll be bringing home 2-3 chips not just one.

[Goobylal]

If he was as good this year as he was in '20, he would have walked off the field against KC with the lead again instead of throwing the ball to the wrong guy at the wrong time.

Right. Let's say Diggs scores on that play (not even close to a sure thing). That leaves the Chefs with ~1:50 and 2 TOs. You remember what happened in 2021 with 13 seconds and 2 TOs, right?

- - - Updated - - -

I agree that his ceiling hasn’t been reached. His remaining growth is between his ears. There’s no guarantee that that growth will ever happen unfortunately…but if it does and it finally clicks for him we’ll be bringing home 2-3 chips not just one.

Give him a good OC. Then we can talk.

[Mad Max]

Right. Let's say Diggs scores on that play (not even close to a sure thing). That leaves the Chefs with ~1:50 and 2 TOs. You remember what happened in 2021 with 13 seconds and 2 TOs, right?

- - - Updated - - -



Give him a good OC. Then we can talk.

OC aside most of his glaring mistakes haven’t been due to scheme or receivers running bad routes or etc, they’ve been due to stupid decisions that he made. He alone needs to recognize that, take accountability and work diligently to greatly reduce them (he’s human so he’ll make mistakes, he just can’t continue to make them in the volume that he has been if the team is to progress).

[YardRat]

Right. Let's say Diggs scores on that play (not even close to a sure thing). That leaves the Chefs with ~1:50 and 2 TOs. You remember what happened in 2021 with 13 seconds and 2 TOs, right?

- - - Updated - - -



Give him a good OC. Then we can talk.

I don't think anybody would expect Diggs to score on that play. Get the first, extend the drive, kill clock. It was the right throw at the time, not the wrong one, and that's the point. Also why I stated leave with the lead, not necessarily the win.

Josh underperforms and it's Daboll's fault. Then Dorsey. Now Brady. There's a common denominator here and it isn't the OC.

[gr8slayer]

I get everything but Morse

I just don’t see ‘better’ there or even equal unless we nail the draft

I'm in the same boat as you.

I was actually ready for some new blood and am a proponent of getting younger via a soft rebuild, but Morse was illogical.

[Goobylal]

OC aside most of his glaring mistakes haven’t been due to scheme or receivers running bad routes or etc, they’ve been due to stupid decisions that he made. He alone needs to recognize that, take accountability and work diligently to greatly reduce them (he’s human so he’ll make mistakes, he just can’t continue to make them in the volume that he has been if the team is to progress).

That's completely wrong. His supporting cast makes plenty of mistakes. That's not to say Josh is perfect. No one is.

There's also a major difference that scheme makes. It's why a guy like Belicheat can take castoffs from other teams and still craft a great defense, and then when they go to another team they after JAGs. I'd take OCs like Reid, McVay and Zac Taylor well before Daboll and Brady (for now, since he's largely unproved). I also want to see what adding a speed WR does and whether if make the offense back to the 2020-2021 versions.

[Goobylal]

I don't think anybody would expect Diggs to score on that play. Get the first, extend the drive, kill clock. It was the right throw at the time, not the wrong one, and that's the point. Also why I stated leave with the lead, not necessarily the win.

Josh underperforms and it's Daboll's fault. Then Dorsey. Now Brady. There's a common denominator here and it isn't the OC.

Uh yeah, it is the OCs. Daboll was a failed NFL OC before Josh. Dorsey had never been an OC before. Brady isn't some wunderkind like a McVay or Taylor. We're all hoping he is but in all likelihood he's not.

What the Bills need more than anything is for the defense to show up in the playoffs. Or at least be somewhat healthy.

[notacon]

The facts I presented are undeniable.

If it's irrelevant that Josh is trying to accomplish something that only two quarterbacks have done in the entire history of the Super Bowl, then it's even more irrelevant what QB's have won championships at 28 years old or later.

But I agree, Josh isn't past his prime. Although at this point it appears we have seen his ceiling in 2020.

The facts I presented are undeniable as well.

My set of facts are what matters to refuting the idea lame idea that the Bills "have wasted Josh's prime".

It is immensely relevant that two thirds of QB's that have won a SB did so when Josh's age or older.

[notacon]

Uh yeah, it is the OCs. Daboll was a failed NFL OC before Josh. Dorsey had never been an OC before. Brady isn't some wunderkind like a McVay or Taylor. We're all hoping he is but in all likelihood he's not.

What the Bills need more than anything is for the defense to show up in the playoffs. Or at least be somewhat healthy.

In over 20 years of NFL head coaching Andy Reid never won a Super Bowl....UNTIL he had Patrick Mahomes.

Not only is Mahomes a better QB than Josh (so far), he became one almost the instant he became their starter with the aid of sitting behind (and learning from) an extremely competent above average starter (some believed a well above average) QB in Alex Smith helping him.
Josh came into the league a much more raw talent that Mahomes...had no opportunity to sit and learn and NO competent (Jesus....not even a bad QB to learn from....he was saddled with NATE PETERMAN....one of the crappiest QB's in history) ahead of him.

On top of that, as Bills scout (when Josh came into the league) Gerald "Smoke" Dixon attested to, Allen was not a student of the game, and shunned film study. He has observed that Josh still makes boneheaded mistakes and leans on his astounding physical ability too much at time.

If and when Josh masters the mental part of the game, and takes it more seriously that he apparently has so far, he could (and I believe will) be a multiple SB winner.

[Goobylal]

In over 20 years of NFL head coaching Andy Reid never won a Super Bowl....UNTIL he had Patrick Mahomes.

Not only is Mahomes a better QB than Josh (so far), he became one almost the instant he became their starter with the aid of sitting behind (and learning from) an extremely competent above average starter (some believed a well above average) QB in Alex Smith helping him.
Josh came into the league a much more raw talent that Mahomes...had no opportunity to sit and learn and NO competent (Jesus....not even a bad QB to learn from....he was saddled with NATE PETERMAN....one of the crappiest QB's in history) ahead of him.

On top of that, as Bills scout (when Josh came into the league) Gerald "Smoke" Dixon attested to, Allen was not a student of the game, and shunned film study. He has observed that Josh still makes boneheaded mistakes and leans on his astounding physical ability too much at time.

If and when Josh masters the mental part of the game, and takes it more seriously that he apparently has so far, he could (and I believe will) be a multiple SB winner.

Again, Reid took McNabb, a tier 2 at best QB, to a SB. Just like there are different levels of QBs, there are different levels of coaches. I dare you to find anyone who would take Daboll/Dorsey/Brady over Reid (or McVay or Taylor) as an OC or McD over Reid as HC. I doubt you'd also find anyone to take McD over Spags as DC.

Coaching matters. A lot. You wouldn't think this would need to be said. Now if you're saying that Josh isn't good enough to overcome the coaching disparity, then I can't really disagree.

[Mad Max]

That's completely wrong. His supporting cast makes plenty of mistakes. That's not to say Josh is perfect. No one is.

There's also a major difference that scheme makes. It's why a guy like Belicheat can take castoffs from other teams and still craft a great defense, and then when they go to another team they after JAGs. I'd take OCs like Reid, McVay and Zac Taylor well before Daboll and Brady (for now, since he's largely unproved). I also want to see what adding a speed WR does and whether if make the offense back to the 2020-2021 versions.

Ya we’ll have to agree to disagree. Are the other factors to blame on occasion? Sure, which is why I said “most”. But you’re seemingly blaming all of Josh’ dumb decisions on everyone but Josh. That is “completely wrong” imo.

[notacon]

Again, Reid took McNabb, a tier 2 at best QB, to a SB. Just like there are different levels of QBs, there are different levels of coaches. I dare you to find anyone who would take Daboll/Dorsey/Brady over Reid (or McVay or Taylor) as an OC or McD over Reid as HC. I doubt you'd also find anyone to take McD over Spags as DC.

Coaching matters. A lot. You wouldn't think this would need to be said. Now if you're saying that Josh isn't good enough to overcome the coaching disparity, then I can't really disagree.

Facts are facts. McNabb was a stellar QB. Not "tier 2 at best QB,". How silly.


I did not say that coaching does not matter. Who is QB is MORE important in today's game. It's undeniable. It's no surprise that FIVE of the last SIX SB's were won by either Tom Brady or Mahomes. The GOAT and the soon to be equal GOAT.

Plus EIGHT of the last TEN SB winners were either Brady, Mahomes or Peyton Manning....who was considered one of the masters of the game and the position of QB.

Kurt Warner (with input from Peter King) was spot on when he said this after the Bills loss to KC because Josh is NOT YET a mater of the game or the mental part of QB...

Allen, on this drive (last Bills drive of the game), had flipped and thrown and side-armed completions of 7, 4, 8, 10, 6 and 7 yards. And needing a first down here, he went gunslinger. I just don’t know why. Kurt Warner, one who would know, tried to explain it a few days after the game.

“Sometimes,” Warner said, “you talk yourself into a play and say, ‘I’m gonna make this play, and this is the throw that’ll send us to the championship game,’ instead of saying, ‘I’m gonna let the defense dictate where I throw the ball.’ As a quarterback, you have to have the ability to balance those things.”

I thought Warner put it best on Allen in this game, and Allen as a player. He said, “It’s impossible to play perfect games, and Josh played an incredible game—until the end. In the end, he took some chances that wouldn’t have been what I would have done. But he chose to make those throws, and if you choose those throws, you’ve got to make ‘em. That’s part of being great. Brady, Montana, Mahomes—they have careers of making the plays in the absolute crucial times of the game. Now they’re on the Mount Rushmore of NFL quarterbacks.”

Allen is just six years into his career. He’s got much of his NFL life in front of him. He’s a smart guy. He’s one of the most talented quarterbacks ever to play in the NFL. He’s going to have plenty of chances to go deep into the playoffs, and to win a Super Bowl. But this is a crucial lesson he must learn, or he may never hold the Lombardi Trophy

Mahomes on the Bills (with no other changes to any players of coaches) and the BILLS would probably have won two or three Super Bowls. Josh Allen on KC (with no other changes to players or coaches) and they probably win NONE.

The facts are hard to ignore.

[Goobylal]

Ya we’ll have to agree to disagree. Are the other factors to blame on occasion? Sure, which is why I said “most”. But you’re seemingly blaming all of Josh’ dumb decisions on everyone but Josh. That is “completely wrong” imo.

So your contention is Josh messes up the most on the offense? Yeah, we'll have to agree to disagree.

Facts are facts. McNabb was a stellar QB. Not "tier 2 at best QB,". How silly.


I did not say that coaching does not matter. Who is QB is MORE important in today's game. It's undeniable. It's no surprise that FIVE of the last SIX SB's were won by either Tom Brady or Mahomes. The GOAT and the soon to be equal GOAT.

Plus EIGHT of the last TEN SB winners were either Brady, Mahomes or Peyton Manning....who was considered one of the masters of the game and the position of QB.

Kurt Warner (with input from Peter King) was spot on when he said this after the Bills loss to KC because Josh is NOT YET a mater of the game or the mental part of QB...




Mahomes on the Bills (with no other changes to any players of coaches) and the BILLS would probably have won two or three Super Bowls. Josh Allen on KC (with no other changes to players or coaches) and they probably win NONE.

The facts are hard to ignore.

I looked-up McNabb's stats and tier 2 may have been generous. He had a 59% career completion percentage. His TD:TO ratio was 1.4.

In any case, there is a thread on another popular Bills site. It's titled "What if Allen and Mahomes swapped exact situations?" Check it out and be enlightened.

There's a good thread on another popular website about this topic. It would be wise to check it out. Basically, reverse Josh and Mahomes and the same team is winning SBs.

[DetoxTent]

I looked-up McNabb's stats and tier 2 may have been generous. He had a 59% career completion percentage. His TD:TO ratio was 1.4.
In any case, there is a thread on another popular Bills site. It's titled "What if Allen and Mahomes swapped exact situations?" Check it out and be enlightened.
There's a good thread on another popular website about this topic. It would be wise to check it out. Basically, reverse Josh and Mahomes and the same team is winning SBs.

I'll take "who is Andy Reid for $1000, Alex?"