A QUESTION FOR THE PESSIMISTS

[better days]

With a real QB any team is a borderline playoff team.

Detroit has a very good QB but still can't manage. They also have far more talent in the receiving dept.

Too funny. You contradict yourself in the same post.

[Fletch]

Too funny. You contradict yourself in the same post.

Hardly. Detroit is a "borderline" playoff team that failed to make the playoffs in a much tougher division than we're in I might add.

How is that contradicting myself? They made the playoffs three seasons ago with the same QB who was a rookie.

Did you forget what you actually wrote so soon? Sure sounds like it.

Or do you not call Detroit a "borderline playoff team?" I don't think you'll find much agreement if you don't, particularly since many around the NFL predicted that they'd make the playoffs last year and will again this year.

I dare you to find one respected and accomplished writer that predicts that the Bills will make the playoffs this season forthcoming.

[Fletch]

By the way, Detroit was a week 5 win away from winning that division. Again, if that's not being a borderline playoff team, I don't know what is.

It's no wonder much of the discussion around here is so logically flawed.

As to how this relates to the Bills, we haven't been a borderline playoff team in a decade. We can't even beat teams not even going to the playoffs much less playoff caliber teams with anything even approaching regularity.

According to some we're ready to make that leap this year. Whatever

[OpIv37]

I think that the people that bash the team every single day as some sort of hobby need a different hobby.

I think you misunderstand. The people who bash the team every single day want the team to win and are bashing because they are frustrated by 14 years of losing.

[better days]

Hardly. Detroit is a "borderline" playoff team that failed to make the playoffs in a much tougher division than we're in I might add.

How is that contradicting myself? They made the playoffs three seasons ago with the same QB who was a rookie.

Did you forget what you actually wrote so soon? Sure sounds like it.

Or do you not call Detroit a "borderline playoff team?" I don't think you'll find much agreement if you don't, particularly since many around the NFL predicted that they'd make the playoffs last year and will again this year.

I dare you to find one respected and accomplished writer that predicts that the Bills will make the playoffs this season forthcoming.

First you said with a real QB any team is a borderline playoff team.

Then you said Detroit has a very good QB but still can't manage.

That is a ​CONTRADICTION.

[OpIv37]

Football is football. It is not like learning Spanish for a year then switching to French, then to Chinese.

I don't think the defensive players will have any problem picking up the system Schwartz runs.

On O we added Mike Williams & a possible starting Guard.

On Defense yes we lost Byrd, but how much of a loss is that really? Byrd did not even play the first 6 games last year.

The signing of Spikes more than makes up for the loss of Byrd. Spikes will make a much bigger impact this year than Byrd made from game 7 on last year.

The Pats* gained Revis, but lost both Spikes & Talib, that is a net loss.

And we have not had the draft yet which should benefit all teams, but it will benefit some teams more than others.

Aside from EJ, the Bills added Kiko, Woods & Goodwin who made an impact last year. If they add three guys who make as big an impact this year, the Bills will be improved.

But I think we all agree this season rests on the shoulders of EJ Manuel. If he plays well or even decent, the Bills make the playoffs, if not the QB search begins again next year.

Learning new systems does hold teams back, at least early in the season.

I forgot about the Pats losing Talib, so I will agree that their D had a net loss even with the acquisition of Revis. That being said, I don't know how you can argue that Spikes makes up for Byrd. Byrd was an every down player. Spikes is a two down LB who likely won't play in passing situations. Byrd is more valuable in number of snaps played alone.

And yes, it mostly rests on EJ. Even if the rest of the team improves, we are going nowhere unless he takes a major step forward.

[Fletch]

OK, so why do all of you pessimists think the Bills are going to have a losing record next year?

A) Because you have no faith in Whaley & think he will blow his first draft?

B) Because you have no faith in Marrone & his staff?

C) Because you have no faith in EJ to stay healthy & develop?

D) Because you think the entire Offense SUCKS?

E) Because you think the entire Defense SUCKS?

F) Because after 14 years of losing, you are AFRAID to think the Bills may finally be on the upswing?

My answers:

A) We're more than one draft away from being playoff caliber.

B) Marrone hasn't proven a thing in the NFL yet and his OC won't even be coaching in the NFL soon, perhaps as soon as after this season assuming that Marrone doesn't have Al Golden type loyalty to a friend that can't cut it. To assume, amidst numerous issues, that Marrone is all of a sudden, and without a decent QB, going to become a competent NFL head coach takes far more blind faith than playing the simple odds, apart from any contrary analysis, does.

C) http://www.tomahawknation.com/2013/4...-florida-state ... Wash/rinse/repeat

D) Aspects of it are good. Woods developed very nicely to the extent that he should transplant Stevie as the team's #1 WR eithe rthis or next season, ... I'm expecting this one. The OL is 3/5 very good. We need a play-making TE, a couple of OL-men, and a 3-down RB. That's a lot. The O doesn't suck, but it's hardly top-10 or even top-half/15.

E) Last season the pass D posted great stats but allowed more scoring in the passing game the previous season. That should be an enormous red-flag and all that any analyst needs to understand last season's D, particularly since we were awful in run D to the tune that even very marginal RBs and RB tandems tore us a new one.

The big lesson from last season should have been that just because you log a ton of sacks does not mean that your D is good. Will we learn that? Who knows. Will we fix what's wrong, because we hardly had a "non-sucky" D and certainly not a playoff caliber D, at the end of the day we ranked 20th in points allowed.

We have talent on the DL although Mario is grossly overcompensated and they could do far better for the money he's getting.

We now have Alonso who appears to be a burgeoning perennial Pro-Bowler, but while we've added Spikes, a completely one-dimensional player, we still have one other starting hole and some depth issues.

Short of Gilmore, who didn't step up much last year from his rookie year, we also have no above average talent in the secondary either.

F) I'll be tickled pink when the Bills finally post a playoff appearance. But this isn't the year and anyone looking at this team strategically sees the current as well as imminent issues and realizes that this team is more than a "move or two" away from even making the playoffs much less winning a playoff game. not to mention that few if anyone on the team has even played in the playoffs.

Allow me to turn these questions coming from the other angle if you don't mind, I'd like to hear your honest and semi-detailed answers, we can go from there although I have to run now:

---------

OK, so why do all of you optimists think that the Bills are finally on the cusp of turning things around to post a .500 or better record this year?

A) Because you think that Marrone is going to do something from a coaching perspective that he's never done before?

B) Ditto for his OC. Also, ditto for his DC who comes from a five-year record as a head coach of 29-51 to take the reigns of the D?

C) Because you have faith that the Bills didn't really reach for Manuel as so many insisted that they had, and that his very pervasive and numerous issues will all of a sudden resolve themselves despite the fact that many of his flaws are not coachable?

D) Because you think that the entire offense is near or at playoff caliber?

E) Because you think that the entire defense is near or at playoff caliber?

F) Because after 14 seasons of inability to even make the playoffs, 18 seasons of a failure to win a playoff game, and only 1 winning season among the last 14, and that one built entirely on a weak schedule, that things are now positioned to change?

[better days]

My answers:

A) We're more than one draft away from being playoff caliber.

B) Marrone hasn't proven a thing in the NFL yet and his OC won't even be coaching in the NFL soon, perhaps as soon as after this season assuming that Marrone doesn't have Al Golden type loyalty to a friend that can't cut it. To assume, amidst numerous issues, that Marrone is all of a sudden, and without a decent QB, going to become a competent NFL head coach takes far more blind faith than playing the simple odds, apart from any contrary analysis, does.

C) http://www.tomahawknation.com/2013/4...-florida-state ... Wash/rinse/repeat

D) Aspects of it are good. Woods developed very nicely to the extent that he should transplant Stevie as the team's #1 WR eithe rthis or next season, ... I'm expecting this one. The OL is 3/5 very good. We need a play-making TE, a couple of OL-men, and a 3-down RB. That's a lot. The O doesn't suck, but it's hardly top-10 or even top-half/15.

E) Last season the pass D posted great stats but allowed more scoring in the passing game the previous season. That should be an enormous red-flag and all that any analyst needs to understand last season's D, particularly since we were awful in run D to the tune that even very marginal RBs and RB tandems tore us a new one.

The big lesson from last season should have been that just because you log a ton of sacks does not mean that your D is good. Will we learn that? Who knows. Will we fix what's wrong, because we hardly had a "non-sucky" D and certainly not a playoff caliber D, at the end of the day we ranked 20th in points allowed.

We have talent on the DL although Mario is grossly overcompensated and they could do far better for the money he's getting.

We now have Alonso who appears to be a burgeoning perennial Pro-Bowler, but while we've added Spikes, a completely one-dimensional player, we still have one other starting hole and some depth issues.

Short of Gilmore, who didn't step up much last year from his rookie year, we also have no above average talent in the secondary either.

F) I'll be tickled pink when the Bills finally post a playoff appearance. But this isn't the year and anyone looking at this team strategically sees the current as well as imminent issues and realizes that this team is more than a "move or two" away from even making the playoffs much less winning a playoff game. not to mention that few if anyone on the team has even played in the playoffs.

Allow me to turn these questions coming from the other angle if you don't mind, I'd like to hear your honest and semi-detailed answers, we can go from there although I have to run now:

---------

OK, so why do all of you optimists think that the Bills are finally on the cusp of turning things around to post a .500 or better record this year?

A) Because you think that Marrone is going to do something from a coaching perspective that he's never done before?

B) Ditto for his OC. Also, ditto for his DC who comes from a five-year record as a head coach of 29-51 to take the reigns of the D?

C) Because you have faith that the Bills didn't really reach for Manuel as so many insisted that they had, and that his very pervasive and numerous issues will all of a sudden resolve themselves despite the fact that many of his flaws are not coachable?

D) Because you think that the entire offense is near or at playoff caliber?

E) Because you think that the entire defense is near or at playoff caliber?

F) Because after 14 seasons of inability to even make the playoffs, 18 seasons of a failure to win a playoff game, and only 1 winning season among the last 14, and that one built entirely on a weak schedule, that things are now positioned to change?

I have said before, this season rests on the shoulders of EJ.

And & am not overly optimistic about it, but I am not pessimistic either.

I am in wait & see mode.

[Typ0]

Here is a very generous analysis of our odds of improvement.

I agree a great deal of it rests on EJs shoulders. This first offseason in the development of a QB is formative and critical to their direction. We will know pretty quickly how he processed the work he did. I'd say pretty generous to say a 50/50 shot he's headed to being the QB we need.

I would also say it's a 50/50 shot he can stay healthy. Could I do better to quantify these things? Absolutely, but not going to spend the time. In both cases I would suspect the probabilities will be lower...so as I said I am doing a generous estimate.

OK....

.5 * .5 = .25. Yep the odds of two 50/50 shots is 25% We are already down to only a 25% probably of team improvement based on EJ.

Hence 5 - 11 is a realistic record after looking at the schedule in my eyes. With only a 25% chance of improvement from the QB position, the death of the owner, the coach with cancer, losing a critical player .... blah blah blah....they can play up the hype of the draft picks all they want the prognosis is not good for us to be headed to the playoffs this year.

[better days]

Learning new systems does hold teams back, at least early in the season.

I forgot about the Pats losing Talib, so I will agree that their D had a net loss even with the acquisition of Revis. That being said, I don't know how you can argue that Spikes makes up for Byrd. Byrd was an every down player. Spikes is a two down LB who likely won't play in passing situations. Byrd is more valuable in number of snaps played alone.

And yes, it mostly rests on EJ. Even if the rest of the team improves, we are going nowhere unless he takes a major step forward.

While Byrd was an every down player, he made little real impact last year.

I expect Spikes to make a REAL impact on two downs this year setting up 3rd & long.

And on 3rd & long Spikes would not be on the field no matter how good he is in coverage because the Bills will be in a nickle defense.

The number of snaps a player has does not matter as much as what a player does with the snaps he takes.

[better days]

Here is a very generous analysis of our odds of improvement.

I agree a great deal of it rests on EJs shoulders. This first offseason in the development of a QB is formative and critical to their direction. We will know pretty quickly how he processed the work he did. I'd say pretty generous to say a 50/50 shot he's headed to being the QB we need.

I would also say it's a 50/50 shot he can stay healthy. Could I do better to quantify these things? Absolutely, but not going to spend the time. In both cases I would suspect the probabilities will be lower...so as I said I am doing a generous estimate.

OK....

.5 * .5 = .25. Yep the odds of two 50/50 shots is 25% We are already down to only a 25% probably of team improvement based on EJ.

Hence 5 - 11 is a realistic record after looking at the schedule in my eyes. With only a 25% chance of improvement from the QB position, the death of the owner, the coach with cancer, losing a critical player .... blah blah blah....they can play up the hype of the draft picks all they want the prognosis is not good for us to be headed to the playoffs this year.

Ralph's death should inspire the Bills to play over their heads if anything. I don't see how they would play worse because of it.

And Marrone having a cancerous mole removed in April, you seriously expect that to have ANY impact at all?

[feldspar]

I think you misunderstand. The people who bash the team every single day want the team to win and are bashing because they are frustrated by 14 years of losing.

No, I don't misunderstand.

[OpIv37]

No, I don't misunderstand.

Clearly you do.

The problem isn't people bashing the team. The problem is that the team gives people so many reasons to bash them year in and year out.

[feldspar]

Clearly you do.

The problem isn't people bashing the team. The problem is that the team gives people so many reasons to bash them year in and year out.

I don't.

If you want to complain every single day and be upset constantly, perhaps you should find a different hobby.

[SquishDaFish]

Get over it WE ALL WANT TO WIN. PLAIN AND SIMPLE

[OpIv37]

I don't.

If you want to complain every single day and be upset constantly, perhaps you should find a different hobby.

I don't want to complain or be upset. Unfortunately, the team keeps sucking and keeps giving us reasons to complain and be upset.

And there's a name for people who find a different hobby when their sports teams suck: bandwagon jumpers.

[feldspar]

I don't want to complain or be upset. Unfortunately, the team keeps sucking and keeps giving us reasons to complain and be upset.

So you whine on a daily basis...just constant whining. Being the realist that you are, you should realize that this is all it amounts to. Even in the months where there is nothing at all happening, there is the compulsive whining.

And there's a name for people who find a different hobby when their sports teams suck: bandwagon jumpers.

Not what I'm talking about. If you root for the team on game-day and support them, then you are a fan. If you follow the team, then you are a fan.

I'm talking about the incessant whining...every day. The obsession to whine. The hobby of whining. Going out of your way to whine all the time does not somehow make you a bigger fan. To the tune of over 72 THOUSAND general whines, not including the people that have to listen to you whine on the street or whatever.

For crying out loud, build a model airplane or something. It's football, dude.

[Typ0]

Ralph's death should inspire the Bills to play over their heads if anything. I don't see how they would play worse because of it.

And Marrone having a cancerous mole removed in April, you seriously expect that to have ANY impact at all?

I can see how it would seem more a factor of motivator...unfortunately that is only a very short term thing. In the long term it adds a lot of uncertainty to the culture...a culture waiting around to see what happens. This is not a good thing....

[DesertFox24]

Weak argument.

Who's arguing blindly? Everyone has seen Manuel, how he plays, his faults, his glaring lack of consistency, etc.

How is that a blind analysis?

It does take sound mechanics and time for some QBs, others catch on right away. But some of that stuff is not teachable/coachable and some is. Manuel's stuff is largely not coachable.

I've posted this article I don't know how many times. Read it, because these guys followed Manuel for every game at FSU as ardent fans and writers. They know, exactly, what they're talking about and the same reasons for their skepticism have cropped up not only here, but as they point out, at FSU as well who had to dumb down their system for him, a tremendously gifted athlete.

If that's blind then I'm Mother Teresa.

http://www.tomahawknation.com/2013/4...-florida-state

In fact, if someone at OBD had read this thing, or had the mental faculties to come to the same easily reached conclusions independently, then we wouldn't be in this undesired situation.

Once again, this is hardly brain or rocket science, but no one at OBD has a clue.

If anything, looking at this blindly is the side of those that think that by doing the same thing over and over again we'll end up with a different result.

Picking Manuel last year, and the likely associated unwillingness to pick his replacement this year, is going to cost Marrone an NFL coaching career. Not that he would have been good otherwise, but that alone is going to render him all but a lame duck after this season.

Hopefully new ownership will be in soon and put in place some good intellectual capital at OBD. I wouldn't be a roll of toilet paper on it, but we can always hope.

What part of he is getting better coaching is eluding people.

No it is not a weak argument.

The jump from high school baskeball to college basketball was a huge jump. No I was not an all star did not play in Europe after graduation and was not invited to the NBA combine.

Now that is out of the way, it took me some time for the game to slow down learn the offense learn the defensive principles. Learn my teammates.

Basketball is a communication sport and if you do not communicate or learn to play together it will never work. Things like spacing where to spot up when player X drives where player Y likes the ball to be thrown when he is posting up. When player Z shoots and misses is normally a long or short rebound.

There is a lot more to the game of basketball than people think and way more involved in the game of football than any of us could possibly know.

To comment directly on your ARTICLE written by people who are not teachers of football and probably never played the game. How can they really derive what was supposed to happen on a given play. There are 11 guys on the field and EJ is responsible for the other 10 guys but if the wr or blocking assignment is wrong from what the coach called is that all on him?

Is it his fault that Jimbo wanted him to be a half field read guy and then run? Winston is no where near the athlete that Manual was, Manual was on the sprint in high school.

Again none of know if EJ will get better and consistent or not, but to blindly say he will not or he will just shows how blind you are.

[Generalissimus Gibby]

OK, so why do all of you pessimists think the Bills are going to have a losing record next year?

Okay lets go through this one by one

A) Because you have no faith in Whaley & think he will blow his first draft?

I think he could have a decent draft. However, a good draft does not make a good record. It takes a couple years for draft picks to get to where they need to be, and as such I cannot ***** and will not ***** about his draft for three years. I am more interested to see if EJ or our other qbs can prove they belong in the NFL. EJ did show some signs last year, so did Lewis. However, I am not sold on them.

B) Because you have no faith in Marrone & his staff?

From crap to mediocre on the College level, why should I expect anything other than mediocrity on the pro level from him?

C) Because you have no faith in EJ to stay healthy & develop?

This franchise has only guessed right one time in drafting a qb, and that was 1983. I'm not saying EJ can't stay healthy and develop but the track record suggests he is injury prone. He stays healthy and maybe I can expect growth and development

D) Because you think the entire Offense SUCKS?

Nope, didn't say that, but it has much room for improvement

E) Because you think the entire Defense SUCKS?

They've stank since 2005. They were okay in 03 and 04, but after we got rid of Fat Pat it was over

F) Because after 14 years of losing, you are AFRAID to think the Bills may finally be on the upswing?

I'm not afraid, its just that I'm from Missouri. Show me on the field that we are finally on the upswing. Otherwise, I can't say that. We win and keep winning I will be thrilled, but I won't be surprised if its different year same old ****.