NFL DRAFT 2017 - QB

[Ingtar33]

so I was playing around this evening, and searching youtube for some QBs in the upcoming draft. Some thoughts.

FIRST ROUND TALENT-
not sure anyone I saw really really fits in here, but If I had to pick one guy it would be Mitch Trubisky.
-first of all I hate putting him here because he does not have enough experience, I really dislike drafting guys or even talking about them with less then 20 starts.
-however, he has the best throwing motion, best arm and best pocket awareness of the guys I saw.
-If we were bringing in a WCO or some sort of WCO derivative he'd be my no.1 option. The kid has great feet and form, fast release and an accurate, strong arm
-in a normal year i'd peg him for a pick 15-40 guy, however in a draft with almost no QB talent this kid is going to get a huge payday and end up in the top 5 of the draft unless NFL executives take a break from their job for a few hours.

SECOND & THIRD ROUND TALENT-
ugh... some of these guys probably will con an NFL team into snagging them in the first round of the NFL draft, these guys are basically seriously flawed in some way
-Deshawn Watson: worse eyes in the draft. This kid is a pure spread offense QB, he is probably RG3 version 2.0. Someone will take him because they'll love his body and arm, and they'll have memories of his huge games. The kid has experience, but I don't think he's really an NFL starter. Maybe after a few years on a bench.
-Brad Kaaya: take Mitch Trubisky and remove his pocket awareness and mobility and you have Brad Kaaya. He has a good arm, good throwing motion, a strong arm and good eyes. I just never liked seeing him in the pocket. He'll struggle against an NFL passrush. but man does he have a nice arm. In another age he'd be a prototypical pocket passer, however he played his college career in a spread offense and never developed that feel for the pocket that typical pocket passers develop. He did impress me a bit with his command and anticipation of his offense. I never felt like he didn't know where EVERY player was on the field at any time. This guy looks like he could squeeze into the first round. I just wish he had a better feel for the pocket. In a normal year he'd be a pick 50+ guy, without any real talent in this draft he'll might just slide into the first round. Much like Trubisky, unless NFL GMs take a vacation and don't bother to evaluate this draft, he should be gone by the end of day 2. If I had a vote, I'd be willing to take a flier on him in round two. There is a lot to like with this kid, just don't expect him to get it immediately. Only three QBs in my lifetime ever "developed" pocket awareness in the nfl, Drew Brees, Steve Young and Aaron Rogers. Which is to say immensely gifted people with HOF level talent. So while it's possible he could find some pocket awareness somewhere, it might be too late for him.
-Deshone Kizer: he's probably going to be the EJ or Tebow of this draft. Someone is going to fall in love with his physical tools and potential, and they're going to take him in round one. When he has a clean pocket he'll do good. But his mechanics are a mess, and he's no where near as fast as he thinks he is. His throwing mechanics are a mess, he has a tebowesque windup which will kill him in the nfl. On the bright side he's much more accurate then Tebow. Much more accurate, when he has that clean pocket he looks like a 1st round draft pick. The problem is what he does with that clean pocket, he double clutches worse then Drew Bledsoe, double and triple hops gives that huge windup and delivers perfect strikes. You see the problem? It won't work in the NFL. It takes too long, way too long to throw. Every year there is that one or two college QBs who absolutely light it up who everyone thinks is the next big thing but who flames out in the league. Kizer has that look to him.

4th through 7th round talent
Chad Kelly - good arm, he's definately not a coward with the ball. However he's not a very developed or sophisticated QB. He has a low release point that just doesn't look right to me, and in many ways he looked like the discount version of Matt Stafford. When I watch him I just think "If only he was a freshman, 2 more years would REALLY help polish him up, as he's rough as all heck." What he really needs is a D-league like NFL Europe or the Arena League and another 2 years of development as a QB to develop that sophistication he's lacking. His name and the lack of talent in this draft will probably help him get picked higher then round 4, but the fact he's blown an ACL and won't be able to work out before the draft will probably hurt him in the end. Biggest character issues of the QBs in the draft.

I'll look at some other QBs in the coming days and add to this I think.

[swiper]

Mason Rudolph?

Ryan Higgins?

Anyone else from this list? http://www.espn.com/college-football.../2016/group/80

[DraftBoy]

Mason Rudolph?

Ryan Higgins?

Anyone else from this list? http://www.espn.com/college-football.../2016/group/80

Rudolph is going back to school, so he is out.

[DraftBoy]

so I was playing around this evening, and searching youtube for some QBs in the upcoming draft. Some thoughts.

FIRST ROUND TALENT-
not sure anyone I saw really really fits in here, but If I had to pick one guy it would be Mitch Trubisky.
-first of all I hate putting him here because he does not have enough experience, I really dislike drafting guys or even talking about them with less then 20 starts.
-however, he has the best throwing motion, best arm and best pocket awareness of the guys I saw.
-If we were bringing in a WCO or some sort of WCO derivative he'd be my no.1 option. The kid has great feet and form, fast release and an accurate, strong arm
-in a normal year i'd peg him for a pick 15-40 guy, however in a draft with almost no QB talent this kid is going to get a huge payday and end up in the top 5 of the draft unless NFL executives take a break from their job for a few hours.

SECOND & THIRD ROUND TALENT-
ugh... some of these guys probably will con an NFL team into snagging them in the first round of the NFL draft, these guys are basically seriously flawed in some way
-Deshawn Watson: worse eyes in the draft. This kid is a pure spread offense QB, he is probably RG3 version 2.0. Someone will take him because they'll love his body and arm, and they'll have memories of his huge games. The kid has experience, but I don't think he's really an NFL starter. Maybe after a few years on a bench.
-Brad Kaaya: take Mitch Trubisky and remove his pocket awareness and mobility and you have Brad Kaaya. He has a good arm, good throwing motion, a strong arm and good eyes. I just never liked seeing him in the pocket. He'll struggle against an NFL passrush. but man does he have a nice arm. In another age he'd be a prototypical pocket passer, however he played his college career in a spread offense and never developed that feel for the pocket that typical pocket passers develop. He did impress me a bit with his command and anticipation of his offense. I never felt like he didn't know where EVERY player was on the field at any time. This guy looks like he could squeeze into the first round. I just wish he had a better feel for the pocket. In a normal year he'd be a pick 50+ guy, without any real talent in this draft he'll might just slide into the first round. Much like Trubisky, unless NFL GMs take a vacation and don't bother to evaluate this draft, he should be gone by the end of day 2. If I had a vote, I'd be willing to take a flier on him in round two. There is a lot to like with this kid, just don't expect him to get it immediately. Only three QBs in my lifetime ever "developed" pocket awareness in the nfl, Drew Brees, Steve Young and Aaron Rogers. Which is to say immensely gifted people with HOF level talent. So while it's possible he could find some pocket awareness somewhere, it might be too late for him.
-Deshone Kizer: he's probably going to be the EJ or Tebow of this draft. Someone is going to fall in love with his physical tools and potential, and they're going to take him in round one. When he has a clean pocket he'll do good. But his mechanics are a mess, and he's no where near as fast as he thinks he is. His throwing mechanics are a mess, he has a tebowesque windup which will kill him in the nfl. On the bright side he's much more accurate then Tebow. Much more accurate, when he has that clean pocket he looks like a 1st round draft pick. The problem is what he does with that clean pocket, he double clutches worse then Drew Bledsoe, double and triple hops gives that huge windup and delivers perfect strikes. You see the problem? It won't work in the NFL. It takes too long, way too long to throw. Every year there is that one or two college QBs who absolutely light it up who everyone thinks is the next big thing but who flames out in the league. Kizer has that look to him.

4th through 7th round talent
Chad Kelly - good arm, he's definately not a coward with the ball. However he's not a very developed or sophisticated QB. He has a low release point that just doesn't look right to me, and in many ways he looked like the discount version of Matt Stafford. When I watch him I just think "If only he was a freshman, 2 more years would REALLY help polish him up, as he's rough as all heck." What he really needs is a D-league like NFL Europe or the Arena League and another 2 years of development as a QB to develop that sophistication he's lacking. His name and the lack of talent in this draft will probably help him get picked higher then round 4, but the fact he's blown an ACL and won't be able to work out before the draft will probably hurt him in the end. Biggest character issues of the QBs in the draft.

I'll look at some other QBs in the coming days and add to this I think.

Agreed with basically everything you said here, and especially about Kizer.

Curious to see your thoughts on Davis Webb (Cal) and Cooper Rush (CMU).

Not really a good year for a QB.

[DesertFox24]

What do you guys think about Luke falk. I also like Webb the Montana guy looked good last year as a junior but has completely flamed out this year.

[WagonCircler]

-Deshone Kizer: he's probably going to be the EJ or Tebow of this draft. Someone is going to fall in love with his physical tools and potential, and they're going to take him in round one. When he has a clean pocket he'll do good. But his mechanics are a mess, and he's no where near as fast as he thinks he is. His throwing mechanics are a mess, he has a tebowesque windup which will kill him in the nfl. On the bright side he's much more accurate then Tebow. Much more accurate, when he has that clean pocket he looks like a 1st round draft pick. The problem is what he does with that clean pocket, he double clutches worse then Drew Bledsoe, double and triple hops gives that huge windup and delivers perfect strikes. You see the problem? It won't work in the NFL. It takes too long, way too long to throw. Every year there is that one or two college QBs who absolutely light it up who everyone thinks is the next big thing but who flames out in the league. Kizer has that look to him..

And this is exactly why Doug Whaley will draft him.

[The Beef]

Kaaya could do himself help himself a ton if he goes back next year, beats FSU and UM sneaks into the playoff. They are VERY close. They might lose some skill position talent, and their TE is a beast but their defense is nasty. They were deflated and flat acter the FSU game which was ashame.

Kaaya has a lot of tools, he does get a bit rattled when he's taking shots in the pocket. He would be a great fit somewhere where he can sit and learn. New Orleans makes a ton of sense when he comes out.

Kelly is a true gun slinger. He's in the Jimbo and Favre mold. Buffalo would either be the best or worst place for him. He has a support system already in place, but the kid is such a knuckle head he could be Johnny Football part 2.

I'd love a scenario where Cardale and Kelly are the backups next year with a vet in place.

The only problem is the 1 vet with any pedigree and class is Romo.

Half of me thinks Romo is a great fit. Keeps Shady and Watkins happy. Will get Clay involved often. Gives the new HC a leg to stand on.

The other half sees all the red flags. He can't stay healthy, which means Cardale will certainly see time. How much is he going to cost? two 2nd's and a couple day 3 picks? This team isn't a QB away from being a Super Bowl contender unless the QB is Brady, Ben or Rodgers but Romo would certainly make them a more viable Wild Card contender.

If that's the case Whaley has to trade down in the first to secure extra picks to make up for the lack of depth at WR, RT, LB and secondary.

[Ingtar33]

Davis Webb (Cal)
Cooper Rush (CMU)
Luke Falk (Wa.St)

since you guys asked i'll do them next.

probably tonight sometime.

[DraftBoy]

Davis Webb (Cal)
Cooper Rush (CMU)
Luke Falk (Wa.St)

since you guys asked i'll do them next.

probably tonight sometime.

Just a FYI, Falk is also returning to school next year.

[sukie]

Anyone mentioned built like Dak Prescott? Big commanding size?

[DraftBoy]

And this is exactly why Doug Whaley will draft him.

I don't know that Kizer will be around at the Bills pick. I think somebody in the Top 10 will fall in love with his highlight tape, size, and athleticism and take him early. The kid can throw the football, but he's gonna need an extra 0.5-1.0 seconds just to get the ball off which in the NFL means that you're getting sacked.

[DraftBoy]

Anyone mentioned built like Dak Prescott? Big commanding size?

Chad Kelly and Mitch Turbisky are close. Prescott was 6'2, 226 lbs, Kelly is listed at 6'2, 224 lbs and Turbisky is 6'3, 220 lbs. A couple of others are Alex Torgersen (Penn - 6'2, 230), Taysom Hill (BYU - 6'2, 230).

Also the Deshaun Watson measurement will be interesting, he's listed at 6'2, 215 lbs.

[sukie]

Kelly is doomed to fail if in Buffalo based on last name alone.

[Ed]

Everything I've read and heard about the qb class this year makes it sound like a terrible draft to take a qb. If the plan is to replace Tyrod with any of these guys we're definitely not going to the playoffs any time soon. I'm ok with using a mid-late pick on a guy with some upside that could be developed. Like they did with Jones. But considering the FA/trade options and this qb class, I don't see any good reason to get rid of Tyrod until there's a better option.

[djjimkelly]

just heard deshaun watson say hes gonna leave it in gods hand


just based on this comment he is off my draft board.


hes delusional and thinks god will change footbal games

[Ingtar33]

Anyone mentioned built like Dak Prescott? Big commanding size?

As an FYI about Prescott I missed him along side everyone else. I think my opinion about him throughout his college career was

"one drive he looks like a can't miss sure fire 1st round future probowler, then next two he looks like a 7th rounder. Someone will love his size and potential and take him in round 2 or 3, but I just can't get around how wildly inconsistent he is"

In 3 years I don't think my opinion of him shifted one inch from this. Maybe used other words but basically said that every time I was asked about him. Not ashamed to say I missed him. So did everyone else.

[YardRat]

I was a little bit fond of Prescott in this last draft, he showed up in a few of my mocks. I would be lying, however, if I claimed to 'know' he would perform as well as he has so early.

I haven't watched much of Trubisky, but he is the consensus #1 guy at this point among the talking heads and gurus.

I still think Kelly is the top prospect in this draft, and he's the one I'd take a chance on this year.

[Ingtar33]

Davis Webb - 5-7 round; does not play well under pressure, does not move well in the pocket. Holds the ball too low, sloppy footwork, throws off his back foot too much, overall i'd rather take Kelly over Webb. Kelly's a much better QB all around then Webb is. The best thing about this kid is his arm. Which is definately pro-level. But then no one i've talked about yet lacks a pro arm. He's even more careless with the football then Kelly, is mediocre on the run, and has poor pocket presence.

Cooper Rush - undrafted; this kid is basically a poor man's Blaine Gabbert, if you are looking for a future NFL QB here, you're looking in the wrong place. Terrible under pressure, poor down field accuracy, bad mechanics. About all he has going for him is a fast release, good mobility and ok pocket presence. He doesn't even progress through his reads well.

[Ingtar33]

I was a little bit fond of Prescott in this last draft, he showed up in a few of my mocks. I would be lying, however, if I claimed to 'know' he would perform as well as he has so early.

I haven't watched much of Trubisky, but he is the consensus #1 guy at this point among the talking heads and gurus.

I still think Kelly is the top prospect in this draft, and he's the one I'd take a chance on this year.

Watch Trubisky, he stands out pretty quickly. I went into with zero knowledge of who the talking heads were talking about apart from the list I used to find the first 5 guys I looked at claiming Deshone Kizer was a lock at no.1 pick. I couldn't figure that one out at all, Trubisky was the last guy on my list, never saw him last season, nor even knew who he was, just he was in the list of top prospects which listed Kizer no.1. Trubisky is quite a bit better then the number 2 guy (in my book with the bit I saw Kaaya is the 2nd best QB in this draft)




Luke Falk - Not Eligible; I only glanced at him since I saw he's not eligible for the NFL draft. But man is he SOOO much better then everyone I've looked at except for Trubisky. He's the only QB on this list (other then Trubisky and maybe Kaaya) to make all the NFL throws, to find guys "NFL" covered and throw them open. I'd need to go over his tape a lot more to give a better and more detailed eval, but I love what I see with this kid.

[Mr. Pink]

What are your thoughts on Patrick Mahomes II?

Falk is a guy I was interested in before hearing he was heading back to school another year. It's a good move for him as he's likely to go from a 3rd round pick to a 1st round pick.